On World Population Day, the United Nations released the 2024 World Population Prospects report, highlighting that the global population will reach nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024.

Over the next 60 years, it is projected to grow by another 2 billion, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before declining slightly to approximately 10.2 billion. This marks a reduction of 700 million from earlier projections a decade ago.

The UN Population Fund emphasized that global demographic changes are uneven, with some regions experiencing rapid population growth while others face rapid aging. These dynamics make reliable population data "more critical than ever" for addressing the needs of underserved groups effectively.

Everyone Matters

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in his World Population Day message, underscored the importance of including marginalized groups to uphold their rights and choices. He stated, "The strength of our rich human tapestry lies in its most fragile threads. When data and systems serve marginalized populations, they serve everyone. This is how we accelerate progress for all."

Since 1951, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs has published 28 editions of the World Population Prospects report, providing detailed demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections through 2100. The report plays a key role in monitoring Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.

Declining Fertility And Aging Population

The report revealed that global fertility rates are declining, with women now having, on average, one fewer child than in the early 1990s. More than half of all countries and regions have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Additionally, nearly one-fifth of countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, are experiencing "ultra-low fertility" rates, where women have fewer than 1.4 children on average.

Population Peaks

As of 2024, 63 countries and regions, including China, Germany, and Japan, have reached their population peaks. Over the next 30 years, these populations are projected to shrink by 14%. Meanwhile, the average age of the global population continues to rise. By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 and older is expected to surpass those under 18. This shift is partly due to increased life expectancy and declining mortality rates over the past three decades. By the late 2050s, over half of all global deaths will occur among individuals aged 80 or older, a significant rise from just 17% in 1995.

Rapid Growth

While slower or declining population growth is primarily occurring in high-income countries, rapid growth is concentrated in low- and lower-middle-income nations. Countries such as Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia are expected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054.

This rapid growth will heighten demand for resources, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where urbanization and rising living standards, coupled with poor management, could exacerbate environmental impacts. The report also warned that climate change poses significant challenges for these regions, many of which rely heavily on agriculture and face widespread food insecurity.

Reproductive Health

Secretary-General Guterres stressed that "acknowledging women's reproductive health and rights is a cornerstone of sustainable development." Despite progress, early pregnancies remain a challenge in low-income countries. In 2024, 4.7 million babies—about 3.5% of the global total—will be born to mothers under the age of 18. Among these, approximately 340,000 will have mothers younger than 15, posing severe risks to both maternal and child health and well-being.

The report highlighted that investing in adolescent education, particularly for girls, and delaying marriage and first childbirth could significantly enhance women’s health, educational achievements, and workforce participation. These efforts would also reduce the resources required to achieve sustainable development goals, ensuring no one is left behind.